The First and Second Tiers of Quarterbacks in the Draft--Greg Cosell (need to scroll down for full summaries of the top six) (1 Viewer)

[RJ in Lafayette]

Each year I watch the Ross Tucker podcasts featuring Greg Cosell who offers his film analysis of the top prospects. Few talking about the draft make more sense than Cosell. I just watched the podcasts where Cosell broke down the top three quarterback prospects and then the second tier of quarterback prospects. (I also watched a few minutes of the podcast where he talked about Brock Bowers, whom he raved over.)

Regarding the second tier of quarterbacks, I have been less excited than many over J.J. McCarthy and more excited than many over Michael Penix. What follows are the high points of Cosell's analysis--but Cosell offered an interesting observation where Nix might be drafted. And again, Cosell's comments are based solely on film study.

1. J.J. McCarthy--Cosell seems less impressed by McCarthy than others. In terms of talent, Cosell said he is not a first-round talent because he lacks high-level arm talent. He noted that Michigan often did not put the ball in McCarthy's hands on third-and-long situations. He has heard that McCarthy has great intangibles, but said that intangibles are not a major factor in the NFL when a quarterback needs to convert a third-and-10. Cosell believes that some scouts have graded McCarthy high because he played for Michigan and "is a winner" based on how well Michigan did. (My personal opinion. Suppose Jayden Daniels and McCarthy had traded teams in 2023. I think Michigan still wins the national championship and is even more dominant. And I think LSU wins two fewer games.)

2. Michael Penix--A pure pocket quarterback. Perhaps throws intermediate and long passes better than any other prospect in the draft. Has an injury history but stayed healthy at Washington. The concern is that his ball placement suffers when he faces heavy pressure. Cosell likened him to Tua at Miami, though Tua has more mobility but Penix has a better arm. He suggested Penix would do best in a rhythm offense like Miami's. But then the vertical routes that Penix throws best take time to develop. Cosell added that Penix may not be a first-round draft pick because he lacks the mobility that the NFL now wants in quarterbacks.

3. Bo Nix--At Auburn, he didn't even look like a good college quarterback. His game improved dramatically at Oregon. Though this is true of nearly all quarterbacks, Nix is a system or fit quarterback. Cosell said that Nix would fit well in Sean Payton's offense.



Edited to add video - Andrus

 

[jesusfish]

Penix ran a 4.46 40 at his pro day. I think we need to rethink the idea that he cannot be mobile.

 

[meily]

Each year I watch the Ross Tucker podcasts featuring Greg Cosell who offers his film analysis of the top prospects. Few talking about the draft make more sense than Cosell. I just watched the podcasts where Cosell broke down the top three quarterback prospects and then the second tier of quarterback prospects. (I also watched a few minutes of the podcast where he talked about Brock Bowers, whom he raved over.)

Regarding the second tier of quarterbacks, I have been less excited than many over J.J. McCarthy and more excited than many over Michael Penix. What follows are the high points of Cosell's analysis--but Cosell offered an interesting observation where Nix might be drafted. And again, Cosell's comments are based solely on film study.

1. J.J. McCarthy--Cosell seems less impressed by McCarthy than others. In terms of talent, Cosell said he is not a first-round talent because he lacks high-level arm talent. He noted that Michigan often did not put the ball in McCarthy's hands on third-and-long situations. He has heard that McCarthy has great intangibles, but said that intangibles are not a major factor in the NFL when a quarterback needs to convert a third-and-10. Cosell believes that some scouts have graded McCarthy high because he played for Michigan and "is a winner" based on how well Michigan did. (My personal opinion. Suppose Jayden Daniels and McCarthy had traded teams in 2023. I think Michigan still wins the national championship and is even more dominant. And I think LSU wins two fewer games.)

2. Michael Penix--A pure pocket quarterback. Perhaps throws intermediate and long passes better than any other prospect in the draft. Has an injury history but stayed healthy at Washington. The concern is that his ball placement suffers when he faces heavy pressure. Cosell likened him to Tua at Miami, though Tua has more mobility but Penix has a better arm. He suggested Penix would do best in a rhythm offense like Miami's. But then the vertical routes that Penix throws best take time to develop. Cosell added that Penix may not be a first-round draft pick because he lacks the mobility that the NFL now wants in quarterbacks.

3. Bo Nix--At Auburn, he didn't even look like a good college quarterback. His game improved dramatically at Oregon. Though this is true of nearly all quarterbacks, Nix is a system or fit quarterback. Cosell said that Nix would fit well in Sean Payton's offense.

Lost all credibility with this statement

 

[Mamba]

Penix ran a 4.46 40 at his pro day. I think we need to rethink the idea that he cannot be mobile.

I didn’t hear the podcast, but I assume Cosell is referring to pocket mobility (sensing and sliding away from pressure, etc).

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

Mamba, correct. You stated it much better than I.

One may disagree with Cosell, and certainly at times his analysis proves wrong. But if you have listened to the man over the years, Cosell has credibility plus. The depth of his analysis exceeds several times what we normally see and hear.

In the case of McCarthy, his analysis is based on his watching video of nearly every game McCarthy has played in over the last two years.

PS I tried to post the link but was not able to. Simply Google Greg Cosell 2024 Draft Quarterbacks and it should pop up. Again, this is the Ross Tucker podcast.

 

[cwesleyc]

Penix ran a 4.46 40 at his pro day. I think we need to rethink the idea that he cannot be mobile.

That's not his game, though. He rushed for something like 7 yards last year and his percentages are low when the pocket breaks down. He's sort of like Derek Carr. His measurables suggest he could do some damage running or passing on the move, but reality is something else.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

As best I could, this is what Cosell said about McCarthy. I emphasize that the analysis is based solely on film study--not on interviews or evaluations by his college coaches.

--Sees him as a developmental project.
--There are clear concerns.
--Was an efficient system quarterback at Michigan. No special throwing ability.
--Good athleticism.
--Can extend. Can run for the first down. Not really a play creator. Not an off-platform thrower.
--Question of how well he can play in a muddy pocket with bodies around him, of whether he can navigate and reset.
--Arm not really special. Labored to drive the ball. Ball does not jump off his hand.
--Based on traits and talent, not a first-round player.
--Saw often that on third and long in first half of games, coaches took the ball out of his hands or a screen pass.
--Ross Tucker noted that in Penn State game, Michigan not throw a pass in second half. Cosell's comment was that he watched 250 drop backs just in 2023 as well as 2022 tape.
--Does not focus on intangibles, only on film study. Has talked to someone who coached against him in high school who described his intangibles as high-level positives. Intangibles certainly matter, but are not the reason you connect on third and nine in fourth quarter.
--There are scouts he respects greatly who have him as a first-round player. They describe him as a "winner."

 

[St. Widge]

Penix ran a 4.46 40 at his pro day. I think we need to rethink the idea that he cannot be mobile.

The shuttle and 3 Cone are more relevant to QB mobility. 4.46 is nice buy you need to operate quickly in small spaces for that to matter at QB. And the fact that he only ran at his pro day tells me he needed perfect conditions to run that 4.46.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

The analysis on Penix:

--Fascinating player.
--Pocket quarterback, but not saying a statue and can't move.
--Big question, which we saw against Michigan, is that when people around him, his efficiency really affected.
--Throws intermediate and vertical passes better than perhaps anyone in the class.
--Somewhat similar to Tua with decrease in placement and efficiency when late in down, can't play with precise timing, and defenders around you. All quarterbacks are affected, but some handle it better than others. Has a better arm than Tua.
--Can throw the ball if clean and comfortable.
--Sense is that he will not go in first round. Question of quarterback movement and reaction--"playing above the Xs and Os." Scheme-specific quarterback.
--Number of injuries early in college but healthy at Washington.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

Bo Nix:

--Fascinating guy. At Auburn, question as to whether he was even a college starter.
--A system quarterback, but nearly everyone is.
--Given what he was asked to do at Oregon, efficient and decisive as executor and distributor. Looked really good in that system.
--Not know what Sean Payton thinks of him, but watching his tape thought he would do well in a Sean Payton system.
--Not a power arm, can't drive the ball the way some want to see. But an easy thrower and threw to the right people.
--Can't do everything or play in every system. Will have to play in the right system.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

Caleb Williams:

--Has talked to some in league he respects greatly who see Williams as a generational talent. Would not say that at this stage. He is a high-level prospect with emphasis on the word "prospect."
--Can make special plays.
--Throws exceptionally well with precise ball placement.
--Greatest strength is awareness in the pocket, how he calmly and athletically functions at game speed when chaos in the pocket.
--Not see on film much of him executing NFL passing game concepts, of throwing off back foot with a refined sense of timing. Not saying he can't. May not have been asked to do much of it in college.
--A concern is the number of sacks he took in college, though USC had a bad offensive line. Want to go back and look at each sack he took in college. For some, number of sacks taken by a quarterback is normally a red flag.
--High-level traits. Spectacular play-making potential. Comparisons to Mahomes have been made.
--Would say he is the top quarterback in draft, but would not say the other two top quarterbacks are way below him.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

Jayden Daniels:

--He and Maye are different players. Both are coach- and system-specific.
--Big-time recruit out of southern California. His progression has been nice to watch. Has been both incremental and dramatic.
--'Explosive, explosive athlete." More emphasis on that now with quarterbacks.
--Relatively refined passer. Solid fundamentals and mechanics. Will work from pocket, will not automatically run from pocket. Saw progression of reads and sense of patience. At times, vision blurred on second and third levels, but compensated with running ability.
--Not sudden twitchy passer like Williams and Maye.
--Saw a calmness and poise to his game.
--Still an ascending player and can grow.
--Not a really high-level passer, though can drive the ball at times. Saw times when he needed to turn it loose and did not. Not do a lot of anticipation throws at LSU. a concern but not a major one.
--That he had top receivers in college not affect the evaluation. Looked at how Daniels played.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

Drake Maye:

--More difference of opinion on Maye than the other top two quarterbacks.
--Tremendous athlete. Very big. Top physical traits.
--A lot of nuance and detail needs to be cleaned up. His ball placement was inconsistent and at times erratic. Has a tendency to drift in the pocket.

 

[DeuceMcAllisterFan]

Penix sounds like an ideal QB for Denver.

 

[RJS]

Penix sounds like an ideal QB for Denver.

It's funny that you say that. Everyone seems to think Nix would be a great fit in Payton's offense. But they seem to be making that assumption on the 2017-2020 Brees version. We have no idea if that is what Sean wants to run. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he wants a guy that aggressively pushes the ball down the field like Penix.

This is going to be a really fun draft to watch play out.