Odds to make the playoffs in '24 (2 Viewers)

[Pocket Hercules]

We were one injury in GB away from making the playoffs last year. We've got the 3rd easiest schedule in 2024.
No dominant QB in our division.


Feel like we're more of a 50/50 chance and I'm leaning on the 51% side. The bears having a 56% chance is less believable than us having a 50% chance.

I hear you re: last year. We definitely left some meat on the bone, but last year was last year.

Personally, I feel that our division overall got better on paper, while our roster and depth have taken a step back, not to mention that our aging stars are another year older. It's unreasonable to expect guys like Davis, Jordan, and Mathieu to even play as well as they did last season, and the latter two of these players have visibly lost a step. I've been saying it for a couple of years now, but Kamara isn't the same player he once was, and hasn't been for a little while now. He's closer to a league average back than he is to a pro bowl-caliber player. Even losing a guy like Peat, combined with Ram's knee issue, has really put us behind the 8-ball on the OL. We've added a few players in the draft, but they're all unproven at this level. Young and Gay are relatively low-impact players within the context of being our headline signings in FA.

We made some moves in the coaching ranks, which is reason for hope, but pretending that Kubiak is a proven full-time play-caller at this point isn't realistic. He has EVERYTHING to prove, and we still have a DA problem at the top.

Could we exceed expectations and make the playoffs? Absolutely! Do I think we are "highly likely" to make the playoffs? Hell no, and I think even 50/50 is a little rosy. 30% seems about right to me, but I'll be there for every game regardless hoping for the best.

 

[Pocket Hercules]

I’d put a few bucks on the Saints to win the South.
I think Cousins is a little overvalued coming off an ACL at his age.

Cousins had an achilles tear, not an ACL. On top of that, mobility has never really been a factor in his game. That injury shouldn't really be an issue as long as it's healed and doesn't recur.

 

[Booker]

...but I'll be there for every game regardless hoping for the best.

It's what we do.

 

[Cajun Chat]

I've seen a couple of power rankings post draft that place us in the 25-26 area. That seems a bit low but I think it wouldn't shock most of us if we continue in the 6-11 to 9-8 on the top end.

 

[0rion]

I think play calling was a huge weakness last year. There's no way that doesn't improve. We were basically still using the same 10 plays CSP used for the last 15 years and if I'm a fat drunk guy on the couch knowing what's coming everyone else knew too. Win or lose im excited to hopefully see some different play calls that aren't predictable.

 

[solarbear88]

Surprised we are that high.

 

[MikeyF]

If Cousins is heathy he’s by far the best QB in the division. It has more to do with the Saints and Panthers being bottom feeders and Baker coming off one good year with a new coordinator.

If Cousins can stay healthy is more correct...
He is an older player and older players are more injury prone!

 

[44slayer]

We were one injury in GB away from making the playoffs last year. We've got the 3rd easiest schedule in 2024.
No dominant QB in our division.


Feel like we're more of a 50/50 chance and I'm leaning on the 51% side. The bears having a 56% chance is less believable than us having a 50% chance.

Do you know how many teams can say there were 1 this or that away? Its a truly futile point.

We were 1 Head Coach away from winning 3-4 games. But its still the same guy doing the same things.

We played 0 elite QBs in 2023. In many games we played the backup to the backup, and the starter wasnt good to begin with. The decent to above averages QBs we played, we were 0-4., Otherwise the other 13 were straight up trash.

We play Mahomes, Cousins, Cousins, Herbert, Dak, Hurts, Stafford, Love and rookies Daniels and Nix (with CSP who will be hellbent on showing Dennis the Menace the business) - and you know how we have a penchant for making rookies look like HoFs right out the gate.

You can wear the B&G glasses all you want, but we are where we should be from a national perspective. 3rd place in the NFC South is fair. We definitely arent "50/50".

Could pigs fly and we make it, sure. Injuries to other teams happen. Guys come out of nowhere (Colston) and fill holes you didnt expect to be filled. Hell, maybe Rattler is the steal of the draft. But 30something% is fair for a team with this many holes and unknowns.

 

[MikeyF]

Any of you take Statistics in college?

Statistics are nothing more that made up BS because you decide where to put your independent variable...
The independent variable decides the outcome of your dependent values...

It is the only math that I've ever taken that I consider to be make-believe math.
Math is suppose to be absolute!

This is why Statistical Analysis and Statistical Polls are junk...garbage...make-believe

So when you look at something like this preseason "Odds to Make the Playoffs"
just chuckle..

Unless you are the Panthers...

 

[44slayer]

Any of you take Statistics in college?

Statistics are nothing more that made up BS because you decide where to put your independent variable...
The independent variable decides the outcome of your dependent values...

It is the only math that I've ever taken that I consider to be make-believe math.
Math is suppose to be absolute!

This is why Statistical Analysis and Statistical Polls are junk...garbage...make-believe

So when you look at something like this preseason "Odds to Make the Playoffs"
just chuckle..

Unless you are the Panthers...

So youre telling us you dont have a sports almanac from a trip you made after you went 88 in a delorean? Come on man. Everyone knows what statistics are. Dont patronize us.

Its a relative strength table more than anything else. Similar to power rankings. It doesnt prove anything, but if you look at power rankings, they are relatively correct. Theres this homer tendency thats makes people believe that a team with this HC and this many holes is somehow a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs......but while some of the "odds" may be slightly high or low, if you looked at them independent of homerism, they are ordered in about the way youd do it.

 

[Infoman]

Any of you take Statistics in college?

Statistics are nothing more that made up BS because you decide where to put your independent variable...
The independent variable decides the outcome of your dependent values...

It is the only math that I've ever taken that I consider to be make-believe math.
Math is suppose to be absolute!

This is why Statistical Analysis and Statistical Polls are junk...garbage...make-believe

So when you look at something like this preseason "Odds to Make the Playoffs"
just chuckle..

Unless you are the Panthers...

While I agree with this assessment... Las Vegas does this fake math better than anyone ever....

 

[HouseCall]

This is the reality of having Dennis Allen as the coach.

This is actually more the reality of a team that the previous coach left with no QB and no viable succession plan to replace the aging veterans on defense.

Sure Allen doesn’t move the needle - but the issues the Saints have are based on talent. The top portions of the NFC West, North and East are younger and more talented. The South has Atlanta who is filthy with young skill players on offense and just added a solid QB.

 

[RJS]

So youre telling us you dont have a sports almanac from a trip you made after you went 88 in a delorean? Come on man. Everyone knows what statistics are. Dont patronize us.

Its a relative strength table more than anything else. Similar to power rankings. It doesnt prove anything, but if you look at power rankings, they are relatively correct. Theres this homer tendency thats makes people believe that a team with this HC and this many holes is somehow a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs......but while some of the "odds" may be slightly high or low, if you looked at them independent of homerism, they are ordered in about the way youd do it.

I'm not sure off-season power rankings are "relatively correct".

ESPN final preseason power rankings 2023 for example:

22) Carolina​

27) LA Rams​

30) Tampa Bay​

31) Houston​

​

The Rams, Buccs and Texans were universally bottom dwellers last year on every preseason ranking. Obviously, none of this matters unless you're into wagering on futures.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Do you know how many teams can say there were 1 this or that away? Its a truly futile point.

We were 1 Head Coach away from winning 3-4 games. But its still the same guy doing the same things.

We played 0 elite QBs in 2023. In many games we played the backup to the backup, and the starter wasnt good to begin with. The decent to above averages QBs we played, we were 0-4., Otherwise the other 13 were straight up trash.

We play Mahomes, Cousins, Cousins, Herbert, Dak, Hurts, Stafford, Love and rookies Daniels and Nix (with CSP who will be hellbent on showing Dennis the Menace the business) - and you know how we have a penchant for making rookies look like HoFs right out the gate.

You can wear the B&G glasses all you want, but we are where we should be from a national perspective. 3rd place in the NFC South is fair. We definitely arent "50/50".

Could pigs fly and we make it, sure. Injuries to other teams happen. Guys come out of nowhere (Colston) and fill holes you didnt expect to be filled. Hell, maybe Rattler is the steal of the draft. But 30something% is fair for a team with this many holes and unknowns.

My stupidity seems to have triggered you. That’s incredibly unfortunate

 

[zeke187]

Any of you take Statistics in college?

Statistics are nothing more that made up BS because you decide where to put your independent variable...
The independent variable decides the outcome of your dependent values...

It is the only math that I've ever taken that I consider to be make-believe math.
Math is suppose to be absolute!

This is why Statistical Analysis and Statistical Polls are junk...garbage...make-believe

So when you look at something like this preseason "Odds to Make the Playoffs"
just chuckle..

Unless you are the Panthers...

They're odds generated by a gambling site. Vegas tends to make up this "BS" quite often.